Chesapeake Bay relies heavily on oyster aquaculture, restoration, and harvesting by watermen for its economy and ecosystem. However, multiple stressors such as ocean acidification, changes in salinity, and temperature extremes threaten these livelihoods and have the potential to exceed social-ecological thresholds. This study integrates biophysical and social data using a top-down approach and spatialized interviews collected from the bottom-up to provide a comprehensive assessment of the factors affecting oyster livelihoods in Chesapeake Bay.
We used a random forest regression analysis to identify the relative importance of biogeochemistry and species responses on Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) aquaculture production, revealing that salinity was the most significant predictor, followed by water temperature and dissolved oxygen. Low salinity events coincide with reductions in calcite saturation state, leading to negative impacts on oyster growth and calcification and subsequent declines in production. We also conducted spatialized interviews with aquaculture producers and restoration partners to contextualize and validate our analysis, collecting qualitative data on observed stressors and responses.
Our interviews revealed that growers are concerned about the potential impacts of low salinity events and multiple stressors, and that some social-ecological thresholds may be exceeded if these impacts continue to intensify. However, we also found evidence of adaptive capacity, as growers are implementing measures such as diversifying their livelihoods and investing in new technologies to mitigate the effects of stressors.
Our study highlights the need for integrated and interdisciplinary approaches to managing Chesapeake Bay oyster livelihoods that consider the complex interactions between biophysical and social factors and account for adaptive capacity. Our findings can inform management strategies aimed at promoting sustainable oyster production and restoration in the face of multiple stressors, including ocean acidification.